Week 4

After finishing 8 and 8 last week, I thought I would go into the vault and dig a little deeper and see if I can hit my usual 10-11 weekly picks. While most are surprised by Kansas City, Chicago and Philadelphia's success, I am not. In fact, I am more surprised by San Francisco, Dallas and Minnesota not being undefeated. Anyway, here are my picks for week 4 and there is no scientific way I pick them, usually I go with my gut.

Atlanta (-6.5) vs San Francisco.
As I mentioned above, I am shocked San Francisco is 0-3. I thought they had a pretty solid Offensive Line, Great Running back in Gore, Great Receiver in Crabtree, Great Tight End in Davis. All Alex Smith has to do is manage the game. That really hasn't happened. In fact, Alex Smith has to win games and as you can see that isn't happening. Firing the Offensive Coordinator won't be enough this week. The only saving grace for the 49ers, the NFC stinks. The Falcons are my pick to win the NFC South. I love Matt Ryan and the supporting cast. I think Mike Smith doesn't get enough credit for the job he has done since arriving. The Falcons are at home and I see a huge blow out.
Falcons 37 - 49ers 20

NY Jets (-5.5) @ Buffalo.
Here's my upset of the week. Buffalo is 0-3, only in week 2 in Green Bay they got blown out. CJ Spiller is going to be a star. Marshawn Lynch will probably be traded and Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard. I think this is a case of disliking the Jets more than liking the Bills. The Jets are 2-1 and I think with all of that talent, probably should be 3-0. However, I am still not sold on Mark Sanchez, however he has played very well the last 2 weeks. I think LT has little in the tank and I don't see him as a 16 game back. Rex Ryan, like his daddy, has a big mouth, but can his teams back it up? I see the Jets overlooking the Bills and this game will be a good "take a step back and get refocus" by the Jets going into their Bye.
Bills 24 - Jets 23

Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Cleveland
I am not a Bengals fan. I think Carson Palmer is one hit away of being knocked out for the season. I think Mount St. Owens will explode soon. I think it is too much for Chad Ochocinco to keep this team together. Cleveland has to win this game. Desperate times, desperate measures. They have Atlanta, @ Pittsburgh and @ New Orleans coming up. I think Eric Mangini is a lame duck coach and I think Jake Delhomme will be either cut or benched by week 12 in favor of Colt McCoy.
Browns 26 - Bengals 17

Green Bay (-14.5) vs Detroit.
So Green Bay is coming off a Monday Night Game where they were penalized 18 times and James Jones fumble at the end of the game spelled defeat against the Bears. Aaron Rodgers is not afraid to take off and run for a first down or touch down, he has a solid receiving core in Jennings, Driver and Finley. Their running back is suspect and Special teams stinks. Green Bay's Defense didn't play well Monday Night. In fact, Clay Matthews is running around like a crazy man, I am waiting for Offensive Coordinators to use his aggressiveness against him. Detroit should not be 0-3, they out played Chicago in week 1 and could have easily beaten the Eagles in Week 2. Matthew Stratford was suppose to have a breakout year this season, but has been sidelined with injuries. Now, Jahvid Best is hurt. Green Bay will win this game, but will they cover?
Packers 28 - Lions 16

Tennessee (-6.5) vs Denver.
The Broncos can't score from the Red Zone. I can't say I am surprised. Knowshown Moreno is slightly above average. Jabbar Gaffney is a little better than Moreno. So what Kyle Orton is doing is amazing. He is putting up numbers with sub par parts. I was not a big Josh McDaniels fan when he took over the reigns last season, but I am intrigued now and I think Denver will be a team to be reckoned with. Tennessee has the make up of everything I like in a team. Star Running Back who gets 20+ carries a game. Solid QB who has talent, but uses the pieces around him. Good Receiving Corp, Solid Offensive Line, Good Defense who doesn't beat themselves. Head Coach who doesn't loss games because of stupid decisions.
Titans 31- Broncos 24

Seattle (-.5) @ St. Louis
The Rams are an upcoming team. They beat a Washington team on the ropes last week and were able to knock them out even without Pro Bowl RB Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford looks solid and Defense is improving. Word of advise, keep it away from Leon Washington on kickoffs and/or punts. Seattle is one of those teams that wins games it shouldn't and loses games it shouldn't. Matt Hasselbeck doesn't have much left, but he might be able to get them by this season before they have to retool. The NFC West is soooo bad, anyone of the four teams can win it this season.
Rams 23 - Seahawks 20

New Orleans (-13.5) vs Carolina.
I thought Atlanta had the talent to stay with the Saints, keep it close and win at the end. I was right. I thought Carolina would turn the page and start over new against Cincinnati with a New QB, I was wrong. Jimmy Clausin is not Matt Ryan, he is going to have some bumps in the road. With the injuries at the O Line, Carolina is in big trouble. Drew Brees with all of those weapons, coming off a loss, this doesn't look good for the Panthers.
Saints 44 - Panthers 20

Pittsburgh (-1.5) vs Ravens.
Who would have thought Charlie Batch would be leading the 3-0 Steelers into week 4, the last Roethliesburger game? The Steelers are playing well and I don't see that stopping. The Ravens have question marks, Flacco has played okay, Ray Rice is injured. Does Willis McGahee have enough? Can The Ravens control the ball for 38 minutes on Offense?
Steelers 16 - Ravens 14

Indianapolis (-8.5) @ Jacksonville.
The Jags always play the Colts tough. Peyton Manning can make a star out of anyone. David Garrard is on his way out. This shouldn't be a game, but I think the score will be close
Colts 28 - Jaguars 20

Houston (-3.5) @ Oakland.
Oakland should have won last week, Janikowski missed three field goals. Houston is good and my pick to win their division, but this is a stinker game.
Raiders 16 - Texans 14

San Diego (-8.5) vs Cardinals.
Chargers come out flying on all cylinders. Cardinals are a below average team with no QB
Chargers 42 - Cardinals 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) vs Washington.
How smart is Andy Reid? Well, we will find out this weekend. If McNabb wins, Reid underestimated the old adage "Don't trade in your own division." Donovan McNabb will receive a hero's welcome. He lead the Eagles to 5 NFC Title Games. Michael Vick has to continue his play and there is no reason why he shouldn't. The team that makes the less mistakes wins.
Eagles 27 - Redskins 24

NY Giants (-3.5) vs Chicago.
The Giants out played Tennessee last weekend, but got killed. The Bears were out played by Green Bay and won. This is the Giants season, if they lose to the Bears, they will start to tinker with this team. Jay Cutler has played real well and The Monsters of the Midway have been great again. Primetime game in the City that doesn't sleep will be an exciting game.
Giants 31 - Bears 27

New England (-.5) @ Miami.
Miami should have won last week against the Jets, but they didn't play with enough urgency. The Patriots didn't blow Buffalo away, like most thought they would, but they won. The Patriots have been doing it with smoke and mirrors over the last few years.
Dolphins 29 - Patriots 27.

QB's around the league

I can't say I am surprised with Brett Favre's success (or lack there of) so far this season. I knew it was just a matter of time for the one time impact QB to play his age. He always was a gun slinger who thought he was better than the game, but now he is just an average Quarterback. I am surprised by Michael Vick's play. Talented yes, disciplined no, Vick so far has turned it around and looks like he will be around for a long, long time. The one thing I really think making Vick so good, is his patience. He is letting the game come to him. He is hitting his wide outs, which is something McNabb never did consistently throughout a game.

Speaking of McNabb, he has to win games like the one Sunday against St. Louis. If the team isn't able to run the ball or stop a rookie QB, than McNabb has to elevate his game. That's what made him so special in Philly for all of those years. If he can't, than it's no surprise Andy Reid traded him to a division rival.

Trent Edwards waived by Buffalo and claimed by Jacksonville. Talk about going from one bad situation to another. I like Jack Del Rio, but I think he is done in JAX after this season. I also think David Garrard will follow and I wonder if this is why Trent Edwards was signed, take a chance on him by week 11 and see if he will be a QB of the future with this team.

Charlie Batch is looking like a great Backup QB and I hope Pittsburgh rewards him with the back up duties when Big Ben returns.

I really like Josh Freeman and I think he is the real deal. Imagine how good this team will be with some experience?

NFL's Week 3

Here are my picks for the coming weekend:
San Francisco (-2.5) @ Kansas City. If you would have told anyone 2 weeks ago, one team would be undefeated and the other is still searching for a win, you probably would have picked San Fran to be the better team. The 49ers played well enough to win Monday night against New Orleans, but on a last second field goal, they didn't. San Francisco had too many turnovers and have been playing sloppy so far in this young season. Kansas City has been doing it by running the ball, as well as special teams. This game will be a true test for the Chiefs, can their run defense stop Frank Gore? Will Alex Smith distribute the ball to all of weapons? Can Matt Cassell manage the game and not turn the ball over?
Chiefs 24 - San Fran 20

Baltimore (+10.5) hosting Cleveland. The Cleveland Browns are this bad. Or are they? They lost 2 games by a total of 5 points, granted they lost to the Buccs in Tampa and KC. Cleveland is hurt by injuries - Jake Delhomme and Jerome Harrison. The big question for the Browns can they stop the Ravens Ray Rice? The Ravens will be playing with a chip on their shoulder losing a game they could have one last week against Cincinnati. I wouldn't want to play against an angry Ray Lewis. Joe Flacco looks confused and has digressed from his brilliant Rookie Campaign 2 season's ago. But I think this is a break out game for Baltimore and I think they win Big at home.
Ravens 33 - Cleveland 9

Dallas (+2.5) @ Houston. Another 2-0/0-2 match up. Dallas has looked uninspired and dreadful and I know it's only week 3, but at 0-3, will they make the playoffs? The Offensive Line has been bad, The Defense couldn't stop Chicago last week. So how are they going to stop the hot Matt Schaub? How will they contain Arian Foster? Do they have an answer for Andre Johnson? I think Dallas has another bad game, but I think Houston will come down from the high of winning two big games.
Cowboys 27 - Texans 23

Detroit (+10.5) @ Minnesota. How does Minnesota become a double digit favorite playing the way they have so far? Oh yeah, they have Adrian Peterson. LeSean McCoy torched the Lions Defense for 120 yards. Peterson will run all day and if Brett the Diva doesn't turn the ball over (hint short passes to Harvin), Minnesota will win this game easily. Detroit is still a year away, but they are moving in the right direction.
Vikings 46 - Lions 17

Patriots (-13.5) hosting Buffalo. On paper this is probably the biggest lopsided game. The Pats have won 7 straight against Buffalo and they go against New QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think everyone is expecting pass pass pass from Tom Brady, but I think they will run run run. I think CJ Spiller has his coming out party and breaks the 100 yard market. But ultimately, New England is too much.
Patriots 31 - Bills 17

Atlanta (+4.5) @ New Orleans. The Saints are undefeated and looking like world beaters. They are determined to repeat as World Champions. But do not tell Atlanta that. I really like Michael Turner and Jason Snelling pounding the Saints Defense. And I expect Matt Ryan to pick apart the secondary. I think this will be a huge upset and set the Falcons in motion to win the division.
Falcons 28 - Saints 17

Tennessee (+3.5) @ NY Giants. Both teams got spanked last week, so it back to the basics. For the Titans, that's running Chris Johnson and a tenacious defense. For the Giants, well, I am not sure what it is. I see Tennessee stopping the Giants from doing anything and holding on to the ball for 40-45 minutes.
Titans 19 - Giants 10

Carolina (-3.5) hosting Cincinnati. I am not sold on Cincinnati. I am waiting for Mt St. Owens to explode, it's going to happen. I do like Jordan Shippley and think he is a better option than TO. Cincinnati defense has played well, but last week, Baltimore's offense was putrid. Of all the Rookie QB's, Jimmy Clausen was my least favorite, probably because he played at Notre Dame. But I see big things coming from him in the future and I don't see the Panthers winning too many games this season, I do see hope in Clausen.
Panthers 22 - Bengals 20

Pittsburgh (-2.5) @ Tampa. Tampa is a young team with an up and coming QB. Pittsburgh is playing with QB no. 4. Tampa's Defense has been good, but truly untested. Pittsburgh's Defense has been good and very well tested. I like the Steelers in a low scoring, grinding game.
Steelers 13 - Tampa 7

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Jacksonville. We all know the Michael Vick story, so let's look at the other factors 1. LeSean McCoy looks like he will be a star (of course 120 yards against Detroit is hard to justify that statement.) 2. Philly's Defense made stops when they had to, they should do the same this week. 3. David Garrard might be playing himself out of town. Jack Del Rio deserves better than this.
Eagles 29 - Jags 14

St. Louis (+2.5) hosting Washington. Donovan McNabb will have a huge game. Sam Bradford will learn from watching McNabb
Redskins 27 - Rams 24

Denver (+6.5) hosting Indianapolis. I think Denver is far from being a dominant team, but the pieces are starting to come together. Indy will start to show their age sometime, just not sure when?
Colts 23 - Broncos 17

Oakland (+4.5) @ Arizona. This should be one ugly game. I like Darren McFadden running all over the place. I like Bruce Gradkowski picking apart Arizona Defense. I think this is the begging of the End for Derrick Anderson.
Raiders 33 - Cardinals 14

San Diego (-5.5) @ Seattle. The Chargers will be without Rookie Back Ryan Mathews. Phillip Rivers will be forced to win this game in a hostile environment. Matt Hasselbeck has played well, but not close to spectacular.
Chargers 26 - Seahawks 19

Miami (-1.5) hosting the NY Jets. Interesting game, Miami's Defense has propelled them to this 2-0 start. Ronnie Brown has been solid and Chad Henne has been fair. Mark Sanchez has shown flashes of brilliance and LT at times looks like his old self. Jason Taylor will be coming home to a tremendous ovation. I see this being a very low scoring game, unless 1 or 2 things can happen. Brandon Marshall can hold on to the ball and a Jet Receiver can step up.
Dolphins 16 - Jets 13

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago. This just on a hunch, nothing more, nothing less.
Bears 24 - Packers 21

In Full Swing

With the NFL Season in Full Swing, I thought I would share some of my thoughts about the 2010 season. First of all, every year there is a surprise team or two and this season is no different. Kansas City and Tampa are both 2-0 and Dallas and Minnesota are both 0-2. I really like Kansas City, I think they have a young nucleus, solid running game, decent Offensive Line, good Defense and great Special Teams. I think they have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. However, I think Tampa won two games against sub par opponents.

Brett Favre is showing why I would have steered clear of him. And if things persist to go south for the Vikings, Brett the Diva will re-re-retire mid season. Dallas on the other hand is a true surprise to me. EVERYONE on that team is playing lousy and heads will roll if they don't turn it around soon.

WIth that all said, here are a few of my observations thus far:
Houston is playing well and can win by running, passing or defense.
Donovan McNabb looks strange in Maroon and Gold.
Rex Ryan might be a bigger blow hard than his dad.

Here are my predictions:
AFC
East: Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Bills
South: Texans, Colts, Titans, Jags
Central: Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Browns
West: Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders

NFC:
East: Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Eagles
South: Falcons, Saints, Buccs, Panthers
Central: Packers, Bears, Lions, Vikings
West: Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams

Super Bowl: Falcons - Chargers (Chargers)