Wednesday, March 17, 2010

My Guide to Picking the NCAA's.

I have been watching the NCAA tournament for 25 years and in this time, I've learned a thing or two about how the tournament plays out. The lowest seed to ever win it all, was 1985 - Villanova an 8 seed. A 1 never lost to a 16. I was in attendance for the first 15 (Richmond) knocking off a 2 (Syracuse.) In fact, the first two 15 seeds that upset a 2, their next opponent - Temple. Speaking of Temple, they never got past the Elite 8. The lowest seed to ever make a final four - George Mason - 11. That was also the last time a mid-major made it to the Final Four.

Get your pens and brackets out and lets go win some $$.
Midwest -
1. Kansas beats 16. Lehigh & will beat the winner of the UNLV/Northern Iowa game (I Like NIU BTW.
5. Michigan St. gets to the sweet 16, knocking off 4. Maryland. Tom Izzo is good, real good, especially with teams that fly under the radar.
6. Tennessee gets to the sweet 16 through 3. Georgetown. (I am not impressed with Georgetown and Tennessee will win because there will be 2 SEC in the Sweet 16.)
2. Ohio State beats 7. Oklahoma St.
Kansas knocks off Michigan St and Ohio State beats Tennessee. Kansas beats Ohio State to win the Midwest...

West -
1. Syracuse will have a tough time with Vermont, there seems to be a slim chance Vermont pulls the upset (They beat Cuse a few years ago in Buffalo, but I don't think history will repeat itself. The 8/9 game is intriguing The Zags/FSU. I like the Zags to win simply because they have had more big games than FSU, but either team loses to Syracuse in the next round.
5. Butler is good - 12. UTEP is everyone's darling, but I think Butler wins. Here is an upset 13. Murray State knocks off Vandy. Murray State/ Butler great game, I like Butler to move into the sweet 16 and play Syracuse.
6. Xavier beats 14. Oakland. Sorry Pitt, every year there is one big upset in the first round by a team no one has ever heard of and this year it's Oakland. Pitt has underachieved all year and I think Jamie Dixon is a great coach, but I just see Pitt playing awful.
7. BYU will match up with Xavier in the Sweet 16 as they knock off K-State along the way. KSU had a great year, but this game is a let down.
1. Syracuse will play Xavier for the right to get to the final 4, I love Xavier, tough defense, solid guard play and can shoot, but Xavier won't have enough and the second No. 1 cruises into the final four.

South -
Some say this is the easiest conference, I say ha! This will be the most competitive and entertaining. Duke, Nova, Baylor, Louisville.
1. Duke was panned by the talking heads, not worthy of a number 1 because they won the ACC, huh? Sorry Coach Pitino, No revenge this year, Duke cruises to the sweet 16.
4. Purdue is hurt and down, and probably should lose to Sienna, but I think they win (barely).
5. Texas A&M is an overwhelming favorite, but every year, a 12 beats a 5 and Utah State has the honors this year. Utah state knocks off Purdue too.
2. Nova makes it to the sweet 16 through Richmond, but if Richmond pulls the upset, I would not be surprised. Baylor beats Notre Dame on their way to the S16.
Duke beats Utah St and Nova beats Baylor, setting up a 1-2 in the South. Even though Nova has lost 5 of 7, the committee always seems to get it right and Nova cruises into their second consecutive final four.

East -
This is the year something crazy happens and it's in the East. 1. Kentucky is very talented, but they are very young. Coach Cal is an awesome coach, but he always seems to not win the big one when he has more talent than his opponent. I don't think its a knock on him, it's just his team is young. So with that said, 8. Texas upsets Kentucky and heads to the S16. They will play 5. Temple who will have a back to back tough games against Cornell and Wisconsin. BTW, the committee jobbed both Temple and Cornell. Temple should have been a 3 seed and Cornell a 9.
11. Washington upsets 6. Marquette and 3. New Mexico on their way to play 2. WVU in the S16. So now here is where my dream takes over my reality. Reality is, WVU beats Temple and once again the Owls make it to the Elite 8, but this is the year Temple breaks the glass ceiling and here's why. 1. Fran Dunphy can coach, most underrated coach in the NCAA and I usually say Coaches can't win games only lose them, Dunphy is the exception. 2. the A-10 never gets respect, only 1 final four team in their history (UMass.) Temple can play with the big boys. There RPI is in the top 10, they play anyone in their back yard. 3. They have the best passing big man in basketball (Lavoy Allen) The best player no one has ever heard of (Juan Fernandez) and a mix of experience players who are not fazed by playing in big games. So hell with it, I am going with Temple to make it the to the final four.

I see Kansas beating Syracuse and Nova getting Revenge on Temple from an earlier loss and Kansas winning the whole thing. And there you have it, my guide to win your bracket

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