Week 4

After finishing 8 and 8 last week, I thought I would go into the vault and dig a little deeper and see if I can hit my usual 10-11 weekly picks. While most are surprised by Kansas City, Chicago and Philadelphia's success, I am not. In fact, I am more surprised by San Francisco, Dallas and Minnesota not being undefeated. Anyway, here are my picks for week 4 and there is no scientific way I pick them, usually I go with my gut.

Atlanta (-6.5) vs San Francisco.
As I mentioned above, I am shocked San Francisco is 0-3. I thought they had a pretty solid Offensive Line, Great Running back in Gore, Great Receiver in Crabtree, Great Tight End in Davis. All Alex Smith has to do is manage the game. That really hasn't happened. In fact, Alex Smith has to win games and as you can see that isn't happening. Firing the Offensive Coordinator won't be enough this week. The only saving grace for the 49ers, the NFC stinks. The Falcons are my pick to win the NFC South. I love Matt Ryan and the supporting cast. I think Mike Smith doesn't get enough credit for the job he has done since arriving. The Falcons are at home and I see a huge blow out.
Falcons 37 - 49ers 20

NY Jets (-5.5) @ Buffalo.
Here's my upset of the week. Buffalo is 0-3, only in week 2 in Green Bay they got blown out. CJ Spiller is going to be a star. Marshawn Lynch will probably be traded and Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard. I think this is a case of disliking the Jets more than liking the Bills. The Jets are 2-1 and I think with all of that talent, probably should be 3-0. However, I am still not sold on Mark Sanchez, however he has played very well the last 2 weeks. I think LT has little in the tank and I don't see him as a 16 game back. Rex Ryan, like his daddy, has a big mouth, but can his teams back it up? I see the Jets overlooking the Bills and this game will be a good "take a step back and get refocus" by the Jets going into their Bye.
Bills 24 - Jets 23

Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Cleveland
I am not a Bengals fan. I think Carson Palmer is one hit away of being knocked out for the season. I think Mount St. Owens will explode soon. I think it is too much for Chad Ochocinco to keep this team together. Cleveland has to win this game. Desperate times, desperate measures. They have Atlanta, @ Pittsburgh and @ New Orleans coming up. I think Eric Mangini is a lame duck coach and I think Jake Delhomme will be either cut or benched by week 12 in favor of Colt McCoy.
Browns 26 - Bengals 17

Green Bay (-14.5) vs Detroit.
So Green Bay is coming off a Monday Night Game where they were penalized 18 times and James Jones fumble at the end of the game spelled defeat against the Bears. Aaron Rodgers is not afraid to take off and run for a first down or touch down, he has a solid receiving core in Jennings, Driver and Finley. Their running back is suspect and Special teams stinks. Green Bay's Defense didn't play well Monday Night. In fact, Clay Matthews is running around like a crazy man, I am waiting for Offensive Coordinators to use his aggressiveness against him. Detroit should not be 0-3, they out played Chicago in week 1 and could have easily beaten the Eagles in Week 2. Matthew Stratford was suppose to have a breakout year this season, but has been sidelined with injuries. Now, Jahvid Best is hurt. Green Bay will win this game, but will they cover?
Packers 28 - Lions 16

Tennessee (-6.5) vs Denver.
The Broncos can't score from the Red Zone. I can't say I am surprised. Knowshown Moreno is slightly above average. Jabbar Gaffney is a little better than Moreno. So what Kyle Orton is doing is amazing. He is putting up numbers with sub par parts. I was not a big Josh McDaniels fan when he took over the reigns last season, but I am intrigued now and I think Denver will be a team to be reckoned with. Tennessee has the make up of everything I like in a team. Star Running Back who gets 20+ carries a game. Solid QB who has talent, but uses the pieces around him. Good Receiving Corp, Solid Offensive Line, Good Defense who doesn't beat themselves. Head Coach who doesn't loss games because of stupid decisions.
Titans 31- Broncos 24

Seattle (-.5) @ St. Louis
The Rams are an upcoming team. They beat a Washington team on the ropes last week and were able to knock them out even without Pro Bowl RB Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford looks solid and Defense is improving. Word of advise, keep it away from Leon Washington on kickoffs and/or punts. Seattle is one of those teams that wins games it shouldn't and loses games it shouldn't. Matt Hasselbeck doesn't have much left, but he might be able to get them by this season before they have to retool. The NFC West is soooo bad, anyone of the four teams can win it this season.
Rams 23 - Seahawks 20

New Orleans (-13.5) vs Carolina.
I thought Atlanta had the talent to stay with the Saints, keep it close and win at the end. I was right. I thought Carolina would turn the page and start over new against Cincinnati with a New QB, I was wrong. Jimmy Clausin is not Matt Ryan, he is going to have some bumps in the road. With the injuries at the O Line, Carolina is in big trouble. Drew Brees with all of those weapons, coming off a loss, this doesn't look good for the Panthers.
Saints 44 - Panthers 20

Pittsburgh (-1.5) vs Ravens.
Who would have thought Charlie Batch would be leading the 3-0 Steelers into week 4, the last Roethliesburger game? The Steelers are playing well and I don't see that stopping. The Ravens have question marks, Flacco has played okay, Ray Rice is injured. Does Willis McGahee have enough? Can The Ravens control the ball for 38 minutes on Offense?
Steelers 16 - Ravens 14

Indianapolis (-8.5) @ Jacksonville.
The Jags always play the Colts tough. Peyton Manning can make a star out of anyone. David Garrard is on his way out. This shouldn't be a game, but I think the score will be close
Colts 28 - Jaguars 20

Houston (-3.5) @ Oakland.
Oakland should have won last week, Janikowski missed three field goals. Houston is good and my pick to win their division, but this is a stinker game.
Raiders 16 - Texans 14

San Diego (-8.5) vs Cardinals.
Chargers come out flying on all cylinders. Cardinals are a below average team with no QB
Chargers 42 - Cardinals 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) vs Washington.
How smart is Andy Reid? Well, we will find out this weekend. If McNabb wins, Reid underestimated the old adage "Don't trade in your own division." Donovan McNabb will receive a hero's welcome. He lead the Eagles to 5 NFC Title Games. Michael Vick has to continue his play and there is no reason why he shouldn't. The team that makes the less mistakes wins.
Eagles 27 - Redskins 24

NY Giants (-3.5) vs Chicago.
The Giants out played Tennessee last weekend, but got killed. The Bears were out played by Green Bay and won. This is the Giants season, if they lose to the Bears, they will start to tinker with this team. Jay Cutler has played real well and The Monsters of the Midway have been great again. Primetime game in the City that doesn't sleep will be an exciting game.
Giants 31 - Bears 27

New England (-.5) @ Miami.
Miami should have won last week against the Jets, but they didn't play with enough urgency. The Patriots didn't blow Buffalo away, like most thought they would, but they won. The Patriots have been doing it with smoke and mirrors over the last few years.
Dolphins 29 - Patriots 27.